Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Georgia
  • Israel
  • Iraq
  • Jordan
  • Oman
  • Kuwait
  • Bahrain
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Qatar
  • Nepal
  • Maldives

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,028,986$ on 2020-12-05

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $50,016$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{151,016.9}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 351.0)}}\) (asimptote \(151,016.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $259,262$ on 2020-12-05

Georgia⮸

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $158,154$ on 2020-12-05

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,462$ on 2020-12-05

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $27,482$ on 2020-12-05

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $343,826$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{369,989.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 197.6)}}\) (asimptote \(369,989.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,909$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,159.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 212.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,159.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,168$ on 2020-12-05

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $562,520$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{598,501.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 193.3)}}\) (asimptote \(598,501.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,411$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,234.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 166.8)}}\) (asimptote \(12,234.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $58,452$ on 2020-12-05

Jordan⮸

Population $10,203,134$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $237,513$ on 2020-12-05

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,010$ on 2020-12-05

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $52,040$ on 2020-12-05

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $124,329$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115,151.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 142.5)}}\) (asimptote \(115,151.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,435$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,565.6}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 165.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,565.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,028$ on 2020-12-05

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $144,164$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{149,884.4}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 172.6)}}\) (asimptote \(149,884.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $889$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{933.9}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 130.1)}}\) (asimptote \(933.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,665$ on 2020-12-05

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $87,732$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{92,237.0}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 170.9)}}\) (asimptote \(92,237.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $341$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{371.6}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 163.5)}}\) (asimptote \(371.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,515$ on 2020-12-05

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Saudi Arabia recovered 94%
Qatar recovered 93%
Kuwait recovered 77%
Nepal recovered 69%
Maldives recovered 69%
Jordan recovered 62%
India recovered 60%
Bangladesh recovered 35%
Malaysia recovered 25%

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $358,526$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{345,654.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 107.8)}}\) (asimptote \(345,654.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,954$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,849.1}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 130.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,849.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,010$ on 2020-12-05

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $139,783$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127,697.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 99.9)}}\) (asimptote \(127,697.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $239$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{225.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 97.1)}}\) (asimptote \(225.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,484$ on 2020-12-05

Nepal⮸

Population $29,136,808$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $239,885$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{325,056.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 196.9)}}\) (asimptote \(325,056.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,577$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,190.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 171.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,190.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,255$ on 2020-12-05

Maldives⮸

Population $540,544$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,159$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,525.9}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 169.5)}}\) (asimptote \(13,525.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $47$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47.5}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 115.3)}}\) (asimptote \(47.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $848$ on 2020-12-05